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Should You Buy Cloudera Stock after Its Q4 Results?


Mar. 11 2020, Published 1:15 p.m. ET

On Tuesday, Cloudera (NYSE:CLDR) stock rose 7.83% and closed at $7.85. Based on the last closing price, the company has a market cap of $2.25 billion. The stock price has fallen 10.6% in the trailing five-day period, while it has fallen 43.2% in the trailing 12-month period.

Currently, Cloudera stock is trading 46.4% below its 52-week high of $14.65 on March 13, 2019. The stock was also trading 60.5% above its 52-week low of $4.89 on June 11, 2019. On a year-to-date basis, the stock has fallen by 32.5% as of Tuesday.

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Cloudera’s Q4 earnings and revenues

On Tuesday, Cloudera announced its earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 (quarter ended on January 31) after the market closed. The company reported revenues of $211.72 million with an adjusted EPS of $0.04. The sales rose 46.5% YoY (year-over-year) in the fourth quarter. Notably, the annualized recurring revenues rose 11% to $731.2 million. Analysts expected the company to post sales of $201.79 million and earnings of -$0.03 in the fourth quarter.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2021, Cloudera estimated sales between $202 million and $207 million with an adjusted EPS estimate between -$0.01 and $0.01. In comparison, analysts forecast first-quarter sales at $205.9 million with an adjusted EPS of -$0.02.

Cloudera’s fiscal 2021 sales forecast is between $860 million and $880 million with an adjusted EPS forecast between $0.25 and $0.29. Analysts estimated the company’s 2021 revenues at $869.8 million and the adjusted EPS at $0.05.

Analysts revise the target price on Cloudera stock

According to the latest recommendations from 18 brokerage firms surveyed by Reuters, five of the analysts recommend a “buy,” 12 recommend a “hold,” and one recommends a “sell.” Analysts have an average target price of $11.87 on Cloudera. The target price implies a return of 51.2% based on the closing price of $7.85 on Tuesday. The consensus target price for the stock fell from $12.19 in February. The lowest target price estimate is $8, while the highest is $17.00.

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On Wednesday, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow decreased its target price from $13 to $10 on Cloudera stock. The analyst reiterated his “equal weight” rating on the stock. According to a report from TheFly, “COVID-19 could present a risk to the numbers, but this risk is likely not any different from the rest of the software space.” The report also said, “Lenschow believes the results should lead to shares moving higher. However, while he thinks Cloudera is stable in the short term, the analyst sees competitive issues longer term as customers move workloads to public clouds.”

Today, a Wedbush analyst increased its target price from $11 to $12 on Cloudera stock. However, a Stifel analyst decreased its target price from $12 to $11 on the stock.

Stock returns

On Tuesday, Cloudera stock was trading 17.7% below its 20-day moving average of $9.54. Meanwhile, the stock is trading 25.6% below its 50-day moving average of $10.55 and 22.7% below its 100-day moving average of $10.15. The stock’s 14-day relative strength index score of 29 shows that the stock is oversold.

Cloudera has an upper Bollinger Band level of $12.02. The company’s middle Bollinger Band level is $9.65, while its lower Bollinger Band level is $7.29. On Tuesday, the stock closed near its lower Bollinger Band level, which also suggests that the stock is oversold.

Currently, Cloudera stock is trading at 108.70x its fiscal 2021 estimated EPS of $0.07. The stock is also trading at 27.88x its fiscal 2022 estimated EPS of $0.28. Wall Street analysts expect the company’s earnings to rise at a CAGR of 20% over the next five years.

Cloudera’s revenues and earnings beat and strong outlook resulted in the stock’s upward movement today. The stock rose by 3.6% at 11:29 AM ET today. However, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.12% and 4.46%, respectively. Read Dow Jones and S&P 500: Will Wild Swings Continue? to learn more.


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