Tesla Lives Up to Expectations, Deliveries Beat Estimate


Jan. 3 2020, Published 1:41 p.m. ET

Today, Tesla (TSLA) posted record production and stronger-than-expected delivery numbers for the fourth quarter. The company delivered 112,000 vehicles globally. The deliveries beat Wall Street’s estimate of 106,000. Additionally, the company produced a record 104,891 vehicles in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, in fiscal 2019, TSLA delivered 367,500 vehicles, reflecting year-over-year growth of about 50%. Also, it exceeded the low end of its delivery target of 360,000–400,000.

The company delivered 19,450 Model S and X vehicles and 92,550 Model 3 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Analysts had mixed opinions on its fourth-quarter delivery numbers. After the company’s third-quarter miss, some analysts expected Tesla’s deliveries to falter in the fourth quarter, too.

On December 30, Bloomberg reported that Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne expected TSLA to miss its yearly target. The analyst projected Tesla would deliver 356,000 vehicles in 2019 and 101,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer was bullish. He expected Tesla to deliver record vehicles in 2019.

The company’s stellar fourth-quarter deliveries boosted TSLA stock today. Tesla stock was trading about 4% higher this morning.

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Canaccord sees healthy upside for Tesla stock

On January 2, Cannacord’s Dorsheimer increased his target price for Tesla stock to $515 from $375. The new target price was about 23% higher than its closing price of $418.33 on December 31. The analyst maintained his “buy” rating for TSLA stock.

After Elon Musk defied demand fears in the fourth quarter, Market Realist analyst Maitali Ramkumar sees more reasons to rejoice. To learn more, read Can Tesla Make It Big in China with Lower Prices?

Tesla cut its Model 3 prices in China, making it more competitive in one of its key markets. The demand for electric vehicles in China has moderated in the wake of lower subsidies. However, the price cut could accelerate growth.

Analysts’ estimate suggests otherwise

Analysts’ average target price is $305.83 for TSLA stock. That target implies a downside of about 29% based on its previous close of $430.26. Moreover, most analysts are cautious about Tesla’s prospects. Of the 33 analysts covering TSLA stock, 13 suggest “sell,” 11 suggest “buy,” and none suggest “hold.” Analysts are skeptical about electric vehicles’ broader adoption.


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