Donald Trump delayed recession?
However, the yield spread turned negative in March. In the last five decades, a recession occurred whenever the spread fell below zero. The spread might vary this time. The yield spread is the difference between ten-year and three-year government bond yields.
On August 6, Barclays announced an “industrial recession.” In the second quarter, around 33% of industrial companies under Barclays’ coverage reported lower sales. In the fourth quarter of 2018, all of the companies under Barclays’ coverage reported revenues growth. Julian Mitchell, Barclays’ industrials analyst, said that the demand slowdown spread beyond auto and electronics. He warned that due to the current circumstances, investors should be careful with the “buy on dip” strategy in companies like Samsung, Honeywell, and Caterpillar.