Mark Zandi discussed the trade war
Is the yield curve right?
Trade war and US economy
According to Zandi, capital expenditure across the globe hasn’t risen since the beginning of the trade war. Jobs might take a hit in the coming days. He said that jobs grew by nearly 2.25 lakh per month in 2018. In the past three to six months, the job growth fell to 1.4 lakh per month. If the growth rate falls below 1 lakh per month, the unemployment rate would rise. Zandi said that the US economy might push the unemployment rate higher.
In June last year, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on $50 billion Chinese imports. Since then, SPY has risen 5.6% and outperformed other major equity indexes worldwide. The four largest economies, the equity index fell by double-digits during this period in terms of the US dollar. Currency depreciation might have impacted the fall.