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What to Expect from Suncor Stock in the Next Month


Jun. 28 2019, Updated 1:34 p.m. ET

Suncor stock price forecast for the 30 days ending July 25

In this part, we’ll estimate Suncor Energy’s (SU) stock price for the next month based on its current implied volatility. Implied volatility in Suncor (SU) has risen by 1.9 percentage points over April 1 to the current level of 24.3%. During the same period, Suncor stock has decreased by 2.8%.

Considering Suncor’s implied volatility of 24.3% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), Suncor stock could close between $33.7 and $29.3 per share in the next 30 calendar days ending July 25.

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Implied volatility in peers

Implied volatility in Equinor (EQNR) has risen by 1.5 percentage points over April 1, 2019, to the current level of 27.3%. Also, implied volatilities in PetroChina (PTR) and YPF (YPF) have risen by 2.8 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, to 19.9% and 36.9%. Equinor and PetroChina’s stock prices have fallen by 10.2% and 15.6%, respectively, during the same period. But, YPF’s stock prices have increased by 29.6% over April 1.

Further, implied volatilities in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which closely resemble market indexes Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index, respectively, have also risen.

Implied volatilities in SPY and DIA have risen by 2.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, over April 1 to the current level of 14.1% and 14.0%. However, in the same period, SPY and DIA’s values have risen by 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively.


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