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Valero Stock Has Slumped 18% in the Past Month


Jun. 5 2019, Updated 12:34 p.m. ET

Valero’s performance

Valero Energy (VLO) stock has fallen 18.4% in the past month. The stock has fallen less than its peers Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PBF Energy (PBF).

Since May 3, 2019, Marathon and PBF have lost 19.7% and 21.1%, respectively. The broader market indicator, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), has fallen 5.7% since the same date.

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Valero’s moving averages

Valero’s fall in the past month has led to a 15.0% fall in its ten-day moving average. Valero’s ten-day moving average has broken below its 30-day moving average, suggesting short-term technical bearishness in its stock. Its ten-day moving average, which stood 2.5% above its 30-day moving average on May 3, 2019, now stands 8.5% below its 30-day moving average.

Why has Valero stock fallen in the past month?

Valero stock has fallen likely due to weaker equity markets and lower refining crack indicators in its primary regions.

So far in the second quarter of 2019, two out of four of Valero’s regional crack indicators have declined. The US Gulf Coast crack indicator, which processes ~58% of its total throughput, has fallen 12% YoY (year-over-year) to $14.1 per barrel. The North Atlantic indicator has fallen 3% YoY in the current quarter. These two regions combined accounted for 75% of Valero’s throughput in the first quarter. Lower crack indicators in vital regions could affect the company’s overall refining margin in the second quarter.


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