Hess’s implied volatility
On June 24, Hess (HES) had an implied volatility of 38.5%, which was ~4.6% higher than its 15-day average. On the same day, EOG Resources (EOG) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) had implied volatilities of 33.1% and 36.2%, respectively.
On June 25–July 1, Hess is expected to close between $58.82 and $64.36 68% of the time. The forecast is based on Hess’s implied volatility of 38.5% and assumes a normal distribution of prices. On June 24, Hess closed at $61.59.
On June 18, Hess stock closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since May 22. On the same day, WTI crude oil prices rose 3.8%. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher.
In the last few trading sessions, Hess’s stock price has struggled near the 50-day moving average level. On June 24, Hess closed just 0.2% below the 50-day moving average. On the same day, Hess closed 6.8%, 2.9%, and 4.9% above its 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
On June 24, Hess’s 50-day moving average was 5.1% higher than its 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the shorter term moving average staying above the longer term moving average is bullish for stock prices.
On the same day, natural gas’s 50-day moving average was 17.8% lower than its 200-day moving average. US crude oil’s 50-day moving average was 0.7% higher than its 200-day moving average. Hess’s production mix in the oil price-linked commodity and natural gas is ~68.2% and 31.2%, respectively.