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Forecasting Total’s Stock Direction This Quarter


Jun. 12 2019, Updated 4:09 p.m. ET

Forecasting Total’s stock price

Since April 1, Total’s (TOT) implied volatility has risen by 2.4 percentage points to 19.0%, while its stock price has fallen 2.0%. Considering Total’s implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), Total stock could close between $56.70 and $52.30 up until June 28.

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Peers’ implied volatility

Since April 1, PetroChina’s (PTR), Equinor’s (EQNR), and ENI’s (E) implied volatility has risen by 4.4, 0.2, and 4.6 percentage points, respectively, to 26.4%, 25.9%, and 23.1%. The stocks have fallen 15.3%, 9.3%, and 10.4%. Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility has risen 1.4 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, to 13.9% and 13.7%. Their values have risen 0.7% and 2.3%.


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