Forecasting Total’s Stock Direction This Quarter

Forecasting Total’s stock price

Since April 1, Total’s (TOT) implied volatility has risen by 2.4 percentage points to 19.0%, while its stock price has fallen 2.0%. Considering Total’s implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), Total stock could close between $56.70 and $52.30 up until June 28.

Forecasting Total’s Stock Direction This Quarter

Peers’ implied volatility

Since April 1, PetroChina’s (PTR), Equinor’s (EQNR), and ENI’s (E) implied volatility has risen by 4.4, 0.2, and 4.6 percentage points, respectively, to 26.4%, 25.9%, and 23.1%. The stocks have fallen 15.3%, 9.3%, and 10.4%. Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility has risen 1.4 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, to 13.9% and 13.7%. Their values have risen 0.7% and 2.3%.