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Forecasting HollyFrontier Stock’s Movement This Month

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Jun. 18 2019, Published 6:59 p.m. ET

Stock forecast

HollyFrontier’s (HFC) implied volatility has risen by 1.8 percentage points since April 1 to 34.7%, while its stock value has fallen 18.2%. Considering HollyFrontier’s implied volatility and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), HollyFrontier stock could close between $37.60 and $43 over the next two weeks.

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Peers’ implied volatility

Since April 1, Delek US Holdings’ (DK), Phillips 66’s (PSX), and PBF Energy’s (PBF) implied volatility has risen by 4.6, 1.7, and 8.0 percentage points, respectively, to 41.2%, 24.1%, and 44.9%. Their stock value has fallen 2.8%, 10.1%, and 23.2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility has risen by 0.9 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, to 13.5% and 13.1%. Their value has risen by 0.9% and 2.4%, respectively.

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