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Will US Crude Oil Hold $60?

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US crude oil last week

On April 26–May 3, US crude oil June futures fell 2.1% and closed at $61.94 per barrel on May 3. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose 0.2% last week. Profit-booking and weekly US crude oil supplies making a new record high of 12.3 MMbpd (million barrels of oil per day) for the week ending April 26 might have dominated oil prices last week.

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Will US crude oil hold $60?

At 6:52 AM EST on May 6, US crude oil prices have fallen 74 cents from the closing level last week. So far, US crude oil prices were 7.6% below their highest closing level since October 31. President Trump announced the possibility of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, which dragged oil prices.

However, the US ended waivers for countries importing oil from Iran last week. As a result, ~1 million barrels of oil per day might be endangered from global oil supplies. Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Monthly oil production figure, US oil supplies fell for the second consecutive month in February on a month-over-month basis—a positive development for oil prices. These factors might provide strong support for US crude oil prices near $60—a psychologically important level. The above analysis could be important for upstream stocks like ConocoPhillips (COP), Hess (HES), and Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

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