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Comparing MRK’s and ABBV’s Revenue Growth Trajectory

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Revenue guidance

In its first-quarter press release, Merck (MRK) raised its GAAP and non-GAAP fiscal 2019 revenue guidance from $43.2 billion–$44.7 billion to $43.9 billion–$45.1 billion, which represents a 4%–7% YoY (year-over-year) increase. Merck expects its oncology, hospital and specialty, vaccine, and animal health franchises to be key revenue drivers in fiscal 2019. However, the company expects currency exchange to have a revenue impact of slightly more than its previously forecast 1.0%.

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In the first quarter, Merck’s revenue rose 7.76% to $10.82 billion, beating analysts’ estimate by $363.63 million. In its first-quarter conference call, AbbVie (ABBV) reaffirmed its forecast of operational revenue growth of 1.0% in fiscal 2019 and a currency exchange impact of 1.0%. To know more about AbbVie’s revenue guidance, read AbbVie Reiterates Revenue Guidance for Fiscal 2019. In the first quarter, AbbVie’s revenue fell 1.34% YoY to $7.83 billion but beat analysts’ estimate by $17.26 million.

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Wall Street estimates

Analysts expect Merck’s revenue to rise 5.62% YoY to $44.67 billion in fiscal 2019, 5.66% YoY to $47.20 billion in fiscal 2020, and 5.00% YoY to $49.56 billion in fiscal 2021. In fiscal 2019, they expect the company’s revenue to rise 4.25% YoY to $10.91 billion in the second quarter, 5.19% YoY to $11.36 billion in the third quarter, and 5.21% YoY to $11.57 billion in the fourth quarter.

Analysts expect AbbVie’s revenue to rise 0.11% YoY to $32.77 billion in fiscal 2019, 5.58% YoY to $34.60 billion in fiscal 2020, and 6.44% YoY to $36.82 billion in fiscal 2021. In fiscal 2019, they expect the company’s revenue to fall 2.21% to $8.08 billion in the second quarter, but rise 0.07% to $8.24 billion in the third quarter and 4.25% to $8.66 billion in the fourth quarter.

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