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Comparing AbbVie’s and Amgen’s 2019 Revenue Growth Trajectories

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Revenue guidance

On its first-quarter earnings conference call, AbbVie (ABBV) reaffirmed its guidance of YoY (year-over-year) revenue growth of 1% on an operational basis and a 1% unfavorable revenue impact associated with foreign exchange movements for 2019. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue of $7.83 billion, a YoY fall of 1.34% but $17.26 million higher than the consensus estimate.

Significant revenue exposure to the Humira franchise coupled with increasing biosimilar competition in ex-US markets have been the key factors driving AbbVie’s share price down in 2019.

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On its first-quarter earnings conference call, Amgen (AMGN) reduced its revenue guidance from $21.8 billion–$22.9 billion to $22.0 billion–$22.9 billion. This change was based on an anticipated increase in the generic erosion of Sensipar’s sales as well as rising competition for the company’s inline portfolio. In the first quarter, the company reported revenue of $5.56 billion, a YoY rise of 0.05% and $6.35 million higher than the consensus estimate.

Investors’ interest in Amgen remains muted due to its nearly flat top line performance, which is an outcome of the slower-than-anticipated uptake of its new drugs and the ongoing generic erosion of its older drugs.

Wall Street estimates

Analysts expect AbbVie’s revenues to see YoY rises of 0.21% to $32.80 billion in 2019, 5.88% to $34.73 billion in 2020, and 6.71% to $37.06 billion in 2021. On the other hand, analysts expect Amgen’s revenues to see YoY changes of -4.93% to $22.58 billion in 2019, 0.76% to $22.75 billion in 2020, and 1.69% to $23.13 billion in 2021.

Analysts expect AbbVie’s revenues to see YoY changes of -2.21% to $8.08 billion in the second quarter, 0.11% to $8.25 billion in the third quarter, and 4.21% to $8.65 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Analysts expect Amgen’s revenue to see YoY falls of -6.48% to $5.67 billion in the second quarter, -5.61% to $5.57 billion in the third quarter, and -7.75% to $5.75 billion in the fourth quarter.

AbbVie’s revenue is expected to grow at a higher compound annual growth rate than Amgen’s revenue from 2019 to 2021.

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