BP stock forecast until June 28
BP (BP) stock has fallen in the second quarter due to lower oil prices and weaker markets. However, BP’s 50-day moving average crossed over its 200-day moving average due to the rise in the stock price later in the first quarter. Now, we’ll discuss how BP stock could move for the rest of the second quarter. We’ll discuss BP’s implied volatility to forecast its stock price range until June 28.
The implied volatility in BP has risen by 2.2 percentage points since April 1 to the current level of 19.7%. During the same period, BP stock has fallen 5.4%, which suggests that the implied volatility in BP and its stock price have moved inversely in the second quarter.
Considering BP’s implied volatility of 19.7% and assuming a normal distribution of prices and standard deviation of one with a probability of 68.2%, BP’s stock price could close between $43.9 per share and $38.8 per share for the 36 days ending June 28.
Peers’ implied volatility
The implied volatility in Total (TOT) has risen by 1.6 percentage points since April 1 to 18.2%. The implied volatility in PetroChina (PTR) and Suncor Energy (SU) increased by 5.0 percentage points and 3.6 percentage points, respectively, during the same period. PetroChina and Suncor Energy’s implied volatilities are 26.9% and 26.1%, respectively.
If we consider these energy firms’ stock prices, then they have fallen in the second quarter. Total, PetroChina, and Suncor Energy stock have fallen 4.8%, 13.9%, and 5.3%, respectively, since April 1, which shows that these energy stocks and their implied volatilities have moved in the opposite direction in the second quarter.