What’s Total’s Price Forecast?


Apr. 29 2019, Updated 8:18 a.m. ET

Implied volatility in Total

Total (TOT) announced its first-quarter earnings on April 26, 2019. The company’s earnings declined, and the stock reacted negatively to the news. Now, let’s look at how Total stock could trend for the seven days after its earnings. We’ll estimate Total’s stock price range for the period ending May 3, 2019. We’ll also examine changes in Total’s implied volatility on its earnings release day.

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Total (TOT) reported earnings on April 26, 2019. On the day, implied volatility in Total fell by 1.6 percentage points to 16.5% compared to the previous day. Also, this was below its 30-day average implied volatility, which stood at 17.2%. On the same day, Total’s stock price fell by 1.3%.

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Expected price range for Total stock for the seven days ending May 3

Considering Total’s implied volatility of 16.5% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), Total’s stock price could close between $56.4 and $53.9 per share in the seven days ending May 3.

Peers’ implied volatility

In contrast to Total, implied volatility in PetroChina (PTR) rose by 0.3 percentage points over the previous day to 22.0% on April 26. Also, implied volatilities in YPF (YPF) and ENI (E) increased by 3.0 percentage points and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, to 46.3% and 18.2%, respectively, on April 26. PetroChina, YPF, and ENI fell by 0.7%, 4.1%, and 0.7%, respectively, on April 26.


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