What’s the Forecast for Total Stock ahead of Q1 Earnings?



Implied volatility in Total

In this part, we’ll look at Total’s (TOT) stock price forecast range based on its implied volatility for the ten days until its earnings. This price forecast will be based on the latest level of implied volatility in the stock. Total is expected to post its Q1 2019 earnings on April 26, 2019.

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Forecasted price range for Total stock for the ten days ending April 26

Total’s stock price range is estimated considering its implied volatility of 18.5%, assuming a normal distribution of prices (bell curve model) and standard deviation of one (which means a probability of 68.2%). Total stock price could close between $57.4 and $54.0 per share in the next ten calendar days ending on April 26.

Implied volatility in peers

Implied volatility in Petrobras (PBR) also has fallen by 6.4 percentage points over January 2 to 40.4%. Also, implied volatilities in PetroChina (PTR) and YPF (YPF) have decreased by 10.5 percentage points and 11.4 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. PetroChina and YPF’s implied volatilities currently stand at 23.8% and 36.7%, respectively.

If we consider their stock prices, then Petrobras has risen by 9.7% since January 2. Also, PetroChina and YPF have surged by 5.9% and 8.7%, respectively, in the stated period.


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