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US Oil Supply Might Not Impact Oil Much


Nov. 20 2020, Updated 12:33 p.m. ET

US crude oil

On April 10, US crude oil May futures rose 1% and closed at $64.61 per barrel—the highest closing level for active US crude oil futures since November. Factors like OPEC’s cuts, lower US monthly oil production, and the rise in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) supported oil prices. However, at 4:13 AM EST on April 11, US crude oil active futures have lost 58 cents from the previous close.

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US oil supply won’t impact oil much

The rise in US crude oil inventories for the last week might have dragged oil prices. On April 10, the EIA reported a surge of 7 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories compared to Reuters poll for a rise of 2 MMbbls. However, the inventories spread or the difference between US crude oil inventories and their five-year average remained unchanged for the week ending April 5—a positive development for oil prices. The total motor gasoline inventories fell by 7.7 MMbbls for the same week.

The fall in the US refinery utilization rate in the past few weeks could have increased the US crude oil inventory levels. In the week ending April 5, the US percent utilization of refinery operable capacity rose to 87.5% from its six-week low. So, the concerns surrounding US oil supply might fade away.

Upstream stocks like Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Concho Resources (CXO), Apache (APA), and others will likely be impacted by any fall in oil prices.


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