US crude oil
On April 22, US crude oil prices rose 2.3% and settled at $65.55 per barrel—the highest closing level for active US crude oil futures since October 31, 2018. On April 22, the US announced that the waivers for eight countries importing oil from Iran, including India and China, will end on May 1. After May 1, any purchase of Iranian oil will be subjected to sanctions.
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US crude oil heading for a new high
As of 3:28 AM EST on April 23, US crude oil prices made a high of $66.19—the highest intraday level for active US crude oil futures since October 31. Crude oil prices are 5.6%, 11.9%, 20.3%, and 7.8% above their 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, respectively. Prices above these moving averages indicate bullishness for oil. The 50-day moving average converging towards the 200-day moving average is a positive development for oil’s uptrend.
The only concern for higher oil prices is OPEC’s stance on extending production cut into second-half of this year. On April 12, the Russian finance minister said that Russia and Saudi Arabia might increase oil production after June to counter rising US oil exports.
The S&P 500 Index (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO) might be impacted by any short-term changes in oil prices due to their exposure to the energy sector. Upstream energy stocks like ConocoPhillips (COP), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) will likely be impacted by any change in oil prices.