Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s

Your Morning Market Briefing

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What the heck happened? April Fools!  Ha, we really got you on that one.  You thought the markets had crashed!  But no.  The Nasdaq (QQQ) is up a whopping 16.5% year-to-date with the S&P 500 (SPY) up over 13%.  Decent earnings combined with low expectations are fueling rally after rally – not to mention the ever elusive promise of a China deal.  Booyah.

What is our take? The bond market (TLT) is still flashing recessionary warning signs, but at least on Friday, they eased.  And, April tends to be the single best month in the market for the whole year.  AND we are riding some real momentum here.  So it seems like April could start out ok.  But I would watch valuations and obviously earnings.  A decent amount of companies are floating up and getting stratospherically expensive.

Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s

What is the 411 on your 401K? You are printing money for your retirement or a yacht.

Will this affect you personally? Hopefully, money, money, money is just printed on your brokerage account statement.

Stocks to watch? All of them – but watch the leaders into earnings.

How big a deal is this? Pretty big. Great 1st quarter – now what?

Love lyfts us up 8.7%

What the heck happened? Lyft started trading on Friday and finished up 8.7% to $78.29, nicely above its IPO price of $72.  The only issue was it WAS up 20% at one point, so a big fade through the day.

Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s

What is our take? Where the eagles fly, across the mountainside, with no profits in sight…..  Last year, the company (LYFT) ended up with $2.2 billion in revenue – yay!  But $900 million in losses – ouch.  Obviously this (driving people around in cars) is being treated like new technology.  But this thing is a dream for profits right now.  I would wait and see how they behave as a public company before getting too excited.

What is the 411 on your 401K? Not much unless you have a ride sharing-weighted portfolio.

Will this affect you personally? Well, you probably do use ride sharing sometimes.

Stocks to watch? LYFT, and all the unicorns looking to come public.  At least out of the gate, this is a good sign more “tech” IPOs will be dumped on the market this year.

How big a deal is this? Good for the upcoming IPOs.

Song for this story? Obvi – “Up Where We Belong” by Joe Cocker and Jennifer Warnes.

GOT (NATURAL) GAS?

What the heck happened? Natural Gas prices slipped again last week as we near the “injection” season and inventories start to fill back up for the year.

What is our take? Though prices have been slipping.  It is important to remember that inventories at their lowest point for this time of the year in the last 5 years.  There are currently 1.08 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in inventory in the U.S.  So it may be a good time to bet on another hot summer and rising natural gas prices again.  Both supply and demand are high these days, but demand is outstripping supply at this point.

Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s

What is the 411 on your 401K? Not much – not a lot of natural gas plays out there unless you buy the etfs, like (UNG) or the weighted ones like (UGAZ),

Will this affect you personally? Natural gas powers most electric power plants these days.  So odds are your electric bill could fall.

Stocks to watch? For natural gas, you really have to watch the weather – the more extreme (hello, climate change), the better for natural gas.

How big a deal is this? Not really that big, but a 5-year low in inventories is noteworthy.

Virginia, Texas Tech, Michigan, State, & Auburn in Final Four

What the heck happened? Your brackets are not just busted, but obliterated into a million little pieces.  Only a single 1 seed made it this year.  Perennial powerhouse teams like Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, and Kansas all got bounced.

Markets Crash in 1Q – April Fool’s

What is our take? Good for college basketball, maybe not for CBS.

Will this affect you personally?  Yes if you love or hate one of the teams that won or lost.

Stocks to watch? None really, but I am sure (CBS) is not happy.

How big a deal is this? Sports rule.

Song for this story? “We are the Champions” by Queen.