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Do Analysts Expect BP to Post Lower Q1 Earnings?

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Apr. 16 2019, Published 10:13 a.m. ET

BP’s fourth-quarter results

BP (BP) is expected to post its earnings results for the first quarter of 2019 on April 30, 2019. Before we proceed with BP’s first-quarter earnings estimates, let’s look at how the company performed compared to estimates in the fourth quarter of 2018.

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BP’s fourth-quarter revenue stood at $75.7 billion, surpassing Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate by ~2%. Its adjusted earnings per American depositary share stood at $1.02, which exceeded analysts’ estimate of $0.84. BP’s adjusted EPS rose 55% YoY (year-over-year) in the fourth quarter.

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BP’s first-quarter estimates

As per Wall Street analysts, BP is expected to post EPS of $0.69 in the first quarter of 2019, 12% lower than its adjusted EPS in the first quarter of 2018 and 32% lower than its adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter of 2018. BP’s revenue is expected to be ~$60.6 billion in the first quarter, ~12% lower than its revenue in the first quarter of 2018.

In the first quarter, average crude oil prices were lower YoY, which could result in lower upstream realizations and earnings for BP. BP’s downstream earnings could also fall, as indicated by the weaker global refining marker margins in the first quarter of 2019 over the first quarter of 2018.

Peers’ estimates

BP’s peers are also expected to put up dull performances in the first quarter of 2019 over the first quarter of 2018. Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to post YoY falls of 26%, 30%, and 17%, respectively, in their EPS in the quarter. Total (TOT) is expected to see a 12% YoY fall in its earnings in the quarter. Suncor Energy’s (SU) EPS are expected to fall 21% YoY in the same period.

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