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Chevron’s EPS to Fall More than BP’s, Shell’s, ExxonMobil’s in Q1

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Apr. 3 2019, Published 9:32 a.m. ET

Chevron’s EPS to fall the most

Chevron (CVX) is expected to post the highest earnings fall among its peers at ~25% YoY (year-over-year) in the first quarter. In comparison, BP’s (BP), Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A), and ExxonMobil’s (XOM) earnings are expected to fall 10% YoY, 18% YoY, and 21% YoY, respectively, in the quarter. 

Suncor Energy’s (SU) and Total’s (TOT) earnings are expected to fall 18% YoY and 12% YoY, respectively, in the quarter. Now, let’s look at Chevron’s earnings estimates in detail.

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Chevron’s first-quarter estimates

In the first quarter, as per Wall Street analysts’ consensus estimate, Chevron is expected to post EPS of $1.42, 25% lower than its adjusted EPS in the first quarter of 2018 and 27% lower than its fourth-quarter adjusted EPS. Chevron’s revenue is expected to be ~$36.9 billion in the first quarter, 2% lower than in the first quarter of 2018.

Chevron’s upstream earnings could fall YoY in the first quarter. Crude oil prices fell YoY in the quarter. WTI prices fell from $63 per barrel in the first quarter of 2018 to $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2019. The drop could affect Chevron’s first-quarter realizations, which could lead to lower upstream earnings for it.

Chevron’s downstream earnings are also likely to be dented by narrower refining cracks YoY in the first quarter. For example, the US Gulf Coast WTI 3-2-1 crack, the broader market crack indicator, contracted 3% from the first quarter of 2018 to $15 per barrel in the first quarter of 2019.

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