Will Earnings Data Help ConocoPhillips?

Rabindra Samanta - Author

Aug. 18 2020, Updated 4:44 a.m. ET

Earnings data

On January 18, ConocoPhillips (COP) shares closed 1.3% below the 200-day moving average. With almost two weeks remaining before the earnings results, ConocoPhillips might test the key moving average going forward. In the fourth quarter, based on analysts’ consensus estimates, ConocoPhillips might report an ~28% contraction in its earnings—the first time in the last six quarters. In Part 1, we discussed how oil’s fall might be behind the decline in the company’s earnings. As a result, ConocoPhillips might not break above the 200-day moving average. Since late November, ConocoPhillips’ share prices haven’t been able to break this long-term moving average.

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Since December 20, the 50-day moving average has been below the 200-day moving average. In technical terms, the crossover is called a “death cross.” Usually, the crossover is followed by more weakness. The crossover might pressure ConocoPhillips’ share prices. On January 18, ConocoPhillips closed 7.1% and 4.7% above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, respectively. On the same day, ConocoPhillips closed 1.9% below its 100-day moving average.

Peers’ moving averages

Apache (APA), Noble Energy (NBL), Cimarex Energy (XEC), and Newfield Exploration (NFX) were 20.7%, 22.1%, 15.5%, and 25.8% below their 200-day moving averages, respectively. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) is 2.6% below its 200-day moving average. All of these upstream stocks are part of SPY.


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