What’s the Forecast for Total Stock ahead of Its Q4 Results?



Implied volatility in Total

In this article, we’ll look at Total’s (TOT) stock price forecast range, based on its implied volatility, for the 16 days leading up to its earnings. This price range forecast will be based on the current level of implied volatility in the stock. 

Total is expected to report its fourth-quarter earnings results on February 7, 2019.

Implied volatility in Total has fallen by 11.9 percentage points since December 24 to 20.8%. During the same period, Total stock has risen 6.5%.

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Forecast price range for Total stock for the 16 days ending on February 7

Total’s price range is estimated considering its implied volatility of 20.8%, assuming a normal distribution of prices (using the bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%). Total stock could close between $55.8 and $51.2 in the next 16 days ending on February 7.

Peer comparison

Petrobras’s (PBR) implied volatility has fallen 14.8 percentage points since December 24 to 38.8%. PetroChina’s (PTR) and YPF’s (YPF) implied volatilities have fallen 1.7 percentage points and 21.4 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. Their implied volatilities currently stand at 31.2% and 38.4%, respectively.

Petrobras stock has risen 25.5% since December 24. PetroChina and YPF have surged 2.9% and 25.2%, respectively, in the stated period.

In the next article, we’ll review Total’s dividend yield ahead of its earnings.


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