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Total’s Q4 Results Are Coming Up: What Should You Expect?

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Jan. 24 2019, Updated 1:37 p.m. ET

Third-quarter performance

Total (TOT) is expected to post its fourth-quarter earnings results on February 7, 2019. Before we proceed with its fourth-quarter estimates, let’s review its third-quarter performance compared to the estimates.

Total’s revenue rose 12% YoY (year-over-year) to $48 billion in the third quarter of 2018. Its adjusted EPS stood at $1.5 in the quarter, surpassing analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.4. The company’s third-quarter adjusted EPS were 42% higher than its adjusted EPS in the third quarter of 2017.

Total’s adjusted net income rose 48% YoY to $4.0 billion in the third quarter. Its adjusted operating earnings rose due to higher exploration and production and gas, renewables, and power earnings partially offset by lower refining and chemicals and marketing and services earnings.

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Total’s fourth-quarter estimates

Wall Street analysts expect Total to post EPS of $1.4 in the fourth quarter of 2018, 26% higher than its adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter of 2017 but 6% lower than its adjusted EPS in the third quarter of 2018. However, Total’s revenue is expected to be ~$42.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, ~10% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2017.

Total’s indicators suggest lower liquids prices but higher natural gas prices YoY in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a marginal fall in Total’s exploration and production earnings YoY. Total’s European Refining Margin Indicator fell YoY in the fourth quarter, which could affect the company’s refining margin and earnings. We’ll review its expected earnings by segment in the next article.

Total’s peers Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP (BP) are expected to post 15% and 27% EPS rises in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. Similarly, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are expected to post 27% YoY and 165% YoY EPS rises, respectively, in the quarter. Suncor Energy’s (SU) earnings are expected to fall 24% YoY in the quarter.

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