Implied volatility in ExxonMobil
In this article, we’ll look at ExxonMobil’s (XOM) stock price forecast range based on its implied volatility for the 21 days leading up to its earnings.
This price range forecast will be based on the current level of implied volatility in ExxonMobil. The company is expected to post its fourth-quarter earnings results on February 1, 2019.
Implied volatility in ExxonMobil has fallen 4.0 percentage points since December 11, 2018, to its current level of 19.8%. During the same period, ExxonMobil stock has fallen 6.5%.
Expected price range for ExxonMobil stock
Considering ExxonMobil’s implied volatility of 19.8% and assuming a normal distribution of prices (using the bell curve model) and a standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), XOM could close between $75.1 and $68.3 in the 21 days ending on February 1, 2019.
Peers’ implied volatilities
Implied volatility in Total (TOT) has fallen 6.3 percentage points since December 11 to 20.6%. Petrobras’s (PBR) and YPF’s (YPF) implied volatilities have fallen 8.2 percentage points and 6.9 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. Their implied volatilities currently stand at 39.8% and 41.4%, respectively.
If we consider the stock prices of these companies, then Total has risen 0.1% since December 11. Petrobras and YPF have risen 13.8% and 2.4%, respectively, in the same period.
In the next article, we’ll review analysts’ ratings for ExxonMobil ahead of its earnings.