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Do Analysts Expect BP to Post Higher Q4 Earnings?

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Jan. 23 2019, Updated 10:26 a.m. ET

BP’s Q3 2018 results versus estimates

BP (BP) is expected to post its Q4 2018 results on February 5. Before we proceed with BP’s Q4 2018 estimates, let’s look at how the company performed in Q3 2018 in comparison to its estimates.

BP’s third-quarter revenues stood at $79.5 billion, around 32% higher than Q3 2017 revenues. BP reported diluted EPS of $1.00 in Q3 2018. However, BP’s adjusted EPS stood at $1.14, which surpassed Wall Street analysts’ estimate of $0.85. Also, BP’s third-quarter adjusted EPS almost doubled year-over-year.

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BP’s Q4 2018 estimates

BP (BP), according to Wall Street analysts, is expected to post EPS of $0.83 in Q4 2018. This estimate is 25% higher than its Q4 2017 adjusted EPS. However, it is 27% lower than its Q3 2018 adjusted EPS. BP’s revenues are estimated to be around $74.3 billion in Q4 2018, about 10% higher than its revenues in Q4 2017.

In Q4 2018, average crude oil prices have stood higher compared to Q4 2017. This could result in better upstream realizations and earnings for BP. However, BP’s downstream earnings could fall as indicated by the lower global refining marker margins in Q4 2018 over Q4 2017. We’ll discuss BP’s expected upstream and downstream earnings in the next two parts.

Expectations from peers

BP’s (BP) peers are also expected to put up a better performance in Q4 2018 over Q4 2017. ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are expected to post 33%, 175%, and 21% higher EPS in Q4 2018 compared to Q4 2017. Total (TOT) is likely to see 31% YoY growth in its earnings in Q4 2018. However, Suncor Energy’s (SU) EPS are expected to fall by 24% YoY in the fourth quarter.

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