Apple Stock Has 30% Upside Potential Compared to Analyst Estimate


Dec. 7 2018, Updated 9:01 a.m. ET

Stock returns

Apple’s (AAPL) stock rose 17% in 2016 and gained 48% in 2017. Since the start of 2018, it’s risen ~6%, indicating absolute gains of 77% since the start of 2016. Apple stock has gained 120% in the last five years and 1,250% in the last ten years.

In comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 ETF (QQQ) have returned 2.6% and 7%, respectively, in 2018. SPY has risen 4.1% in the last year and 39% in the last three years. QQQ has risen 9.4% in the last year and 52% in the last three years. SPY is up 66% in the last five years compared to returns of 105% for QQQ.

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Analysts’ recommendations

Of the 38 analysts tracking Apple, 32 have recommended “buys,” six have recommended “holds,” and none have recommended “sells” on its stock. Analysts’ 12-month average price target for Apple is $229.82. Apple is trading at a discount of 30% to analysts’ average estimates.

Moving averages

On December 4, Apple closed the trading day at $176.69. Based on that price, the stock was trading as follows:

  • 15.4% below its 100-day moving average of $208.84
  • 14.6% below its 50-day moving average of $207
  • 5.7% below its 20-day moving average of $187.31


Apple’s 14-day MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is -0.90. A stock’s MACD is the difference between its short-term and long-term moving averages. Apple’s negative MACD score indicates a downward trading trend.

Apple has a 14-day RSI (relative strength index) score of 37, which shows that the stock is trading closer to oversold territory. An RSI score of above 70 indicates that a stock has been overbought, while an RSI score of below 30 indicates that a stock has been oversold.


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