HollyFrontier’s Stock Price Forecast ahead of Its Q3 2018 Results


Oct. 12 2018, Updated 8:01 a.m. ET

Implied volatility in HollyFrontier

In this article, we’ll look at HollyFrontier’s (HFC) stock price forecast range, which is based on its current implied volatility, for the 21-day period leading up to its earnings.

HollyFrontier is expected to post its third-quarter earnings results on October 31.

Implied volatility in HollyFrontier has risen from 31.6% on September 10 to its current level of 42.5%. HollyFrontier stock has fallen 7.5% in the same period.

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Likely price range for HFC

HollyFrontier’s stock price range is estimated considering its implied volatility of 42.5%, a normal distribution of prices using the bell curve model, and a standard deviation of one (which suggests a probability of 68.2%). HollyFrontier stock price could close between $72.6 and $59.2 per share in the 21 days ending on October 31.

Volatility and returns of HFC’s peers

Implied volatilities in Delek US Holdings (DK) and PBF Energy (PBF) have risen 10.9 percentage points and 6.4 percentage points, respectively, since September 10. Currently, implied volatilities in Delek and PBF Energy stand at 49.9% and 41.5%, respectively. Implied volatility in Phillips 66 (PSX) has risen 5.7 percentage points over September 10 to its current level of 26.0%.

If we consider the prices of these stocks, then Phillips 66 and Delek have fallen 0.8% and 18.6%, respectively, in the stated period. However, PBF has remained flat since September 10, indicating that PSX and DK and their implied volatilities have moved inversely in the past month.

In the next article, we’ll see where analysts’ ratings on HollyFrontier stand ahead of its third-quarter earnings results.


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