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Allergan’s Neurology Portfolio, Stock Performance, and Ratings

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Stock performance

On October 3, Allergan’s (AGN) stock price closed at $193.46, which is ~11.0% below its 52-week high of $215.10 on October 3, 2017. Allergan’s stock price grew from $164.05 at the open of the market on January 2 to $193.46 on October 3, which reflects ~18.0% YTD (year-to-date) growth. On March 5, Merck hit its 52-week low of $142.81.

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Analysts’ recommendations

Of the 22 analysts tracking Allergan in October, four recommended a “strong buy” while 11 analysts recommended a “buy” rating. Seven analysts recommended a “hold” rating.

On October 3, Allergan had a consensus 12-month target price of $211.67 for an ~9.41% return on investment over the next 12 months.

Recent developments in Allergan’s Neurosciences segment

In September, Allergan (AGN) entered into an agreement with Bonti, in which Allergan would acquire Bonti with an upfront payment of $195.0 million along with additional milestone payments. The acquisition of Bonti is expected to bring into Allergan’s portfolio two botulinum neurotoxin serotype E programs of Bonti, which are currently in Phase 2 trials.

In September, the FDA accepted Allergan’s supplemental New Drug Application (or sNDA) for Vraylar. Allergan submitted an sNDA for label expansion to include the use of Vraylar for the treatment of depressive episodes due to bipolar 1 disorder.

In July, the FDA granted a fast-track designation for AGN-241751, Allergan’s investigational therapy for the treatment of major depressive disorders. Presently, Allergan is conducting a Phase 2 clinical trial of AGN-241751.

Allergan’s financial outlook

In the first half, Allergan reported revenues of $7.8 billion, reflecting ~2.8% YoY (year-over-year) growth. Allergan expects its GAAP net revenues in fiscal 2018 to be $15.15 billion–$15.35 billion.

Allergan expects its net revenues in the third quarter to be $3.75 billion–$3.9 billion. The company expects its net income per share to range from -$0.31 to -$0.01. Allergan comprises ~1.67% of the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLV) portfolio holdings.

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