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Will the Fall in Oil Prices Continue This Week?


Nov. 20 2020, Updated 4:32 p.m. ET

US crude oil

Between August 31 and September 7, US crude oil October futures fell 2.9% and closed at $67.75 per barrel on September 7. In September so far, US crude oil active futures have fallen 2.9% compared to their rise of 1.5% in August.

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Will the fall in oil prices continue this week?

In the week that ended on September 7, the US oil rig count fell by two to 860. However, later this week, US crude oil inventory data could be an important turning point for oil prices. In Part Seven of this series, we’ll discuss key energy events for the week.

Moreover, within less than two months, US sanctions on Iranian crude oil and condensate exports will come into effect. This could help oil prices to recover.

Important price points for this week

This week, on the upside, the closing level of $69.86 per barrel will be important for US crude oil prices. The 20-day moving average of $67.83 will be an immediate resistance zone for US crude oil prices.

Any changes in US crude oil prices could also be important for US equity indexes such as the S&P 500 Index (SPY) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DIA). Last week, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index fell 1% and 0.2%, respectively. Next, we’ll discuss how oil affects these equity indexes.

The fall in oil prices is also a negative development for oil-weighted stocks. Oasis Petroleum (OAS), Denbury Resources (DNR), and California Resources (CRC) fell 8.8%, 9.2%, and 11.2%, respectively, last week. They were the underperformers among oil-weighted stocks.

Natural gas

Between August 31 and September 7, natural gas October futures fell 4.8% and settled at $2.776 per million British thermal units on September 7, the largest weekly fall for active natural gas futures since the week that ended on February 9. The forecast of a fall in demand this week kept natural gas prices near their one-month low in the last trading session.

Going forward, on the downside, the closing level of $2.69 will be important to watch until September 14. Natural gas’s 50-day and 100-day moving averages of $2.84 and $2.85, respectively, will likely be important resistance zones for natural gas prices.


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