What’s Total’s Stock Price Forecast until the Quarter’s End?



Expected price range for Total stock until September 28

In the previous article, we looked at Total’s (TOT) moving average trend. Now let’s consider its implied volatility to forecast its stock price range leading up to September 28.

The implied volatility in Total has risen 1.9 percentage points since July 2 to its current level of 19.7%. In the same period, Total stock has risen 4.2%.

Considering Total’s implied volatility of 19.7% and assuming a normal distribution of prices using the bell curve model and a standard deviation of one (with a probability of 68.2%), Total stock could close between $65.2 and $61.0 in the ten-day period ending on September 28.

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Peer comparison

Contrary to Total, the implied volatility in Equinor (EQNR) has fallen 1.6 percentage points since July 2 to its current level of 22.2%. The implied volatilities in YPF (YPF) and Suncor Energy (SU) have fallen 7.9 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points, respectively, in the same period. YPF’s and SU’s implied volatilities currently stand at 42.3% and 19.9%, respectively. In the stated period, EQNR and YPF stocks have risen 0.8% and 16.9%, respectively, but SU stock has fallen 2.8%.

The implied volatilities in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which closely resemble the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index, respectively, have fallen 4.1 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively, since July 2 to their current levels of 9.5% and 8.0%, respectively. In the same period, DIA and SPY have risen 8.3% and 7.2%, respectively.

In the next article, we’ll review Total’s dividend yield trend.


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