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Estimates for Model 3 Production and Deliveries in Q3 2018

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Model 3 production guidance

During its second-quarter earnings event, Tesla (TSLA) guided that it would be able to produce 50,000–55,000 units of its Model 3 in the third quarter.

Most estimates suggest that the company could easily meet this Model 3 production guidance. Now let’s take a look at some of these estimates.

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Estimates for third-quarter production

On August 27, a report published by electrek.co said, “Tesla produced just over 47,000 vehicles throughout the third quarter as of last week,” citing “a reliable source.” The report also suggested that “At the current rate, Tesla will end the quarter with over 70,000 vehicles produced.”

According to Bloomberg’s Tracker, Tesla’s Model 3 production rate was 3,486 units per week as of September 13.

On the more conservative side, a production-tracking system developed by Troy Teslike estimated Tesla’s Model 3 third-quarter production to be 52,591 units as of September 13.

Recent trends

Tesla’s total vehicle production was 53,339 units in the second quarter, reflecting a rise of 108% YoY (year-over-year) and 55% sequentially. During the quarter, the company produced 18,440 units of the Model 3, while it produced 10,930 and 11,370 units of the Model S and Model X, respectively.

In the second quarter, TSLA delivered a total of 40,768 car units, including 22,319 units of its Model S and Model X and 18,449 units of its Model 3.

While Tesla’s vehicle production is growing rapidly, it’s still quite low compared to those of mainstream automakers (XLY) General Motors (GM), Ford Motor Company (F), and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU). Remember, though, that Tesla only produces electric vehicles—unlike GM, Ford, and FCAU, which mainly produce gas-powered vehicles.

Continue to the next article to learn about recent updates on Tesla’s Semi.

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