Analysts and Macy’s Expected Sales in the Second Half of 2018



Company outlook

Macy’s (M) raised its sales guidance for fiscal 2018 in August after a better performance in the first half of fiscal 2018. As we’ve already seen in this series, Macy’s sales declined 1.1% in the fiscal second quarter, which ended on August 4, due to the impact of the shift in the Friends and Family promotional event to the fiscal first quarter.

Overall, the company’s net sales grew 1.2% in the first half of fiscal 2018, and same-store sales grew 1.9% on an owned basis. On an owned plus licensed basis, same-store sales were up 2.3% in the first half of the year.

Macy’s expects its fiscal 2018 sales growth to be 0%–0.7% compared to the previous guidance of -1.0%–0.5%.

Macy’s expects its fiscal 2018 same-store sales growth to be 2.1%–2.5% on an owned plus licensed basis and 20–30 basis points below that guidance on an owned basis.

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Analyst expectations

For the fiscal third quarter of 2018, analysts expect Macy’s net sales to rise 2.2% to $5.4 billion. The company is optimistic about a strong holiday season. On September 12, it announced its plan to hire ~80,000 seasonal workers for this holiday season, which is part of the fiscal fourth quarter and a very crucial period for retailers since it generally accounts for a notable proportion of annual sales. Analysts currently expect Macy’s fiscal fourth-quarter sales to decline 2.2% to $8.5 billion.

Nordstrom (JWN), which delivered impressive numbers in its fiscal second quarter, is expected to generate revenue (net sales plus credit card revenue) growth of 1.8% in the fiscal third quarter and a decline of 2.6% in the fiscal fourth quarter.

For fiscal 2018, analysts expect Macy’s net sales to rise 0.6% to ~$25 billion. In the next part, we’ll look at Macy’s earnings.


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