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Gauging Analysts’ Expectations for Novavax and Peers in August


Aug. 16 2018, Updated 1:50 p.m. ET

NVAX overview

Novavax (NVAX) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on bringing to market recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants.

Novavax makes use of its proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology and saponin-based adjuvant technology to develop vaccine candidates that target different infectious diseases, such as the respiratory syncytial virus and influenza.

Novavax has entered into a key grant agreement with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (or BMGF), which is the current source of its revenue. This $89.1 million grant supports Novavax’s global Phase 3 trial for pregnant women in the third trimester and licensing efforts for ResVax. Novavax has recognized ~$60 million in revenue from the BMGF grant since its inception. Previously, Novavax had grant agreements with the Department of Health and Human Services and the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.

In this series, we’ll explore Novavax’s financial performance and significant pipeline developments along with analysts’ views on its stock.

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Analysts’ recommendations

In August, of the eight analysts covering Novavax, four have given it “buy” or higher ratings, three have given it “hold” ratings, and one has given it a “sell” rating. The mean rating for Novavax stock is 2.38, and its target price is $3.86, implying an upside potential of ~170% over its closing price of $1.43 on August 15.

Peers’ ratings

In comparison, peers AstraZeneca (AZN), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Merck & Co. (MRK), and AbbVie (ABBV) have mean ratings of 1.83, 2.6, 2.05, and 2.41, respectively, and target prices of $39.89, $42.19, $70.52, and $109.35, respectively.

We’ll take a look at the financial performance of Novavax in the next article.


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