Halliburton’s implied volatility
Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was 29.7% as of June 29. Since April 23, the day Halliburton released its first-quarter earnings, its implied volatility has increased. Halliburton accounts for 2.9% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES provides exposure to the energy sector’s oil and gas equipment and services segment. XES has remained unchanged since April 23—compared to a 13% fall in Halliburton’s stock price during the same period. The implied volatility signals a stock’s potential price movement from option holders’ perspective.
Halliburton’s stock price forecast
Halliburton stock will likely close between $46.91 and $43.21 by July 6 based on its implied volatility. Halliburton’s stock price forecast for this week is based on a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. Halliburton’s stock price was $45.06 as of June 29.
Peers’ implied volatility
TechnipFMC’s (FTI) implied volatility as of June 29 was 36.5%. TechnipFMC’s stock price could vary between $33.34 and $30.14 from now until July 6. McDermott International’s (MDR) implied volatility was 38.5% as of June 29. McDermott International’s stock price could vary between $20.70 and $18.60 from now to July 6. Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility was 70% as of June 29. Weatherford International’s stock price could vary between $3.61 and $2.97 from now to July 6.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
As of June 29, crude oil’s implied volatility was 23.7%, which implies crude oil prices of $76.58–$71.72 by July 6.
Next, we’ll discuss crude oil’s correlation with Halliburton.