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US Gasoline Demand Could Hit a New Record

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US gasoline demand 

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that the four-week average US gasoline demand increased 2.4% to 9,701,000 bpd (barrels per day) on June 22–29. The demand also increased by 119,000 bpd or 1.2% YoY (year-over-year).

An increase in the gasoline demand is bullish for gasoline and oil prices. US gasoline and WTI oil futures have increased ~51% and ~72%, respectively, since June 21, 2017. WTI oil futures were near multiyear highs on June 29.

The United States Gasoline ETF (UGA) tracks US gasoline futures. UGA has increased ~53% since June 21, 2017. The VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) increased 41.9% during the same period. CRAK has exposure to refining companies.

Delek Holdings (DK), PBF Energy (PBF), and HollyFrontier (HFC) account for 8.1% of CRAK holdings. These stocks have risen ~101.2%, ~103%, and ~168%, respectively, since June 21, 2017. These stocks were the top percentage gainers in CRAK’s holdings during this period.

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US gasoline consumption estimates 

US gasoline consumption averaged 9.32 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in 2016 and 2017. Gasoline consumption could average 9.34 MMbpd in 2018 and 9.38 MMbpd in 2019. Annual gasoline consumption could hit a record in 2018 and 2019 if the projections are achieved.

Impact

US gasoline demand reached a record high of 9,776,000 bpd for the week ending August 5, 2016.

The American Automobile Association estimated that a record 46.9 million Americans were expected to travel during the July 4 holiday. The estimate suggests strong demand for gasoline and crude oil. As a result, the gasoline demand could hit a new record in the coming weeks. The demand was 0.8% below the record level for the week ending June 29.

The US gasoline demand was ~3.4% above its five-year average, which is bullish for gasoline and oil prices.

Read Saudi Arabia and Russia Could Change the Tone for Oil Prices and Decoding Important Drivers for US Natural Gas Prices for crude oil and natural gas updates.

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