Halliburton’s implied volatility
Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was 23.1% as of July 27. Since July 23, the day Halliburton released its first-quarter earnings, its implied volatility has decreased. Halliburton accounts for 2.7% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES provides exposure to the energy sector’s oil and gas equipment and services segment. XES has increased 3% since July 23—compared to a 0.6% rise in Halliburton’s stock price during the same period. The implied volatility signals a stock’s potential price movement from option holders’ perspective.
Halliburton’s stock price forecast
Halliburton stock will likely close between $43.14 and $40.46 by August 3—based on its implied volatility. Halliburton’s stock price forecast for this week is based on a normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. Halliburton’s stock price was $41.80 as of July 27.
Implied volatility for Halliburton’s peers
TechnipFMC’s (FTI) implied volatility as of July 27 was 31.9%. TechnipFMC’s stock price could vary between $33.93 and $31.05 until August 3. McDermott International’s (MDR) implied volatility was 46.9% as of July 27. McDermott International’s stock price could vary between $18.94 and $17.00 until August 3. Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility was 46% as of July 27. Weatherford International’s stock price could vary between $3.70 and $3.26 until August 3.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
As of July 27, crude oil’s implied volatility was 22.7%, which implies crude oil prices of $70.85–$66.53 by August 3.
Next, we’ll discuss crude oil’s correlation with Halliburton.