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A Look at ConocoPhillips’s Q2 2018 Earnings Estimates

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Odds of beating earnings estimates

In the last four quarters, ConocoPhillips (COP) beat the consensus EPS estimates in the second quarter of 2017, the third quarter of 2017, and the first quarter. However, COP met its EPS estimate in the fourth quarter of 2017. In the last four quarters, COP beat the consensus EPS estimate 75.0% of the time and met its consensus EPS estimate 25.0% of the time.

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Other oil and gas producers

In the last four quarters, upstream players Encana (ECA), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have exceeded their respective earnings expectations ~75.0%, ~100.0%, and ~75.0% of the time.

What was COP’s stock price reaction to its Q1 earnings?

ConocoPhillips announced its first-quarter earnings on April 26 before the market opened. In the first quarter, ConocoPhillips reported revenues of ~$9.0 billion were higher than the Wall Street analyst consensus of ~$8.8 billion. 

COP also beat its EPS estimates by $0.23 in the first quarter. COP reported an adjusted profit of $0.96 per share, and the Wall Street analyst consensus was for a profit of $0.73 per share. Following the earnings release, better-than-expected earnings saw ConocoPhillips’s stock price increase from $64.79 to $71.71 in four weeks.

COP’s year-to-date performance

ConocoPhillips has been among the positive performers in the upstream sector year-to-date, posting an ~31.0% return. COP is also broadly outperforming the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP), which represents an index of stocks in the energy industry. XOP has ~82.0% exposure to the Oil and Gas Exploration & Production industry. XOP is up 17.0% in 2018 year-to-date. 

To learn more about the top upstream stock performers in 2018, please read How Is the Energy Sector Performing in 2018?

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