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A Look at CNX Resources’ Stock Price Forecast

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CNX Resources’ implied volatility

As of July 26, 2018, CNX Resources (CNX) had an implied volatility of ~37.2%, which is lower when compared with its implied volatility of ~39.1% at the end of Q2 2018.

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CNX’s price range forecast

CNX Resources is expected to report its Q2 2018 earnings on August 2 before the market opens. Based on CNX Resources’ implied volatility of ~37.2%, assuming the normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and standard deviation of one, its stock could close between $17.82 and $16.20 by August 1. CNX’s stock will stay in this range 68% of the time. On July 26, CNX’s stock price closed at $17.01.

Peer price range forecasts

As of July 26, CNX’s peer Range Resources (RRC) had an implied volatility of ~43.2%, which means RRC stock is expected to close between $16.93 and $14.85 by August 1. On July 26, RRC’s stock price closed at $15.89. Just like CNX, RRC has operations in the Marcellus Shale.

As of July 26, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) had an implied volatility of ~23.7%, which means FCG is expected to close between $24.45 and $22.75 by August 1. On July 26, FCG’s price closed at $23.60. FCG represents an index of energy stocks that derive a substantial portion of their revenues from the exploration and production of natural gas.

On July 26, CNX’s peers California Resources (CRC) and Devon Energy (DVN) had implied volatilities of ~89.1% and ~36.9%, respectively. By August 1, these stocks are expected to close in a range of $41.16—$32.72 and $47.28—$43.02, respectively.

Based on the inputs used in the calculation of price range, there is a 68% probability that these stocks will close in their range for the given period.

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