Halliburton’s implied volatility
Halliburton’s (HAL) implied volatility was 23.9% on June 8. On April 23, the day Halliburton released its first-quarter earnings, its implied volatility was 24.9%. Since then, Halliburton’s implied volatility has fallen. HAL makes up 2.9% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES provides exposure to the oil and gas equipment and services segment of the energy sector. XES has increased 1% since April 23 versus a 4% fall in HAL’s stock price during the same period. Implied volatility (or IV) signals a stock’s potential price movement from the perspective of option holders.
Halliburton’s stock price forecast
Implied volatility for HAL’s peers
TechnipFMC’s (FTI) implied volatility on June 8 was 29.6%, which implies FTI’s stock price could vary between $33.94 and $31.26 between now and June 15. McDermott International’s (MDR) implied volatility was 38.6% on June 8, which implies MDR’s stock price could vary between $22.02 and $19.78 between now and June 15. Weatherford International’s (WFT) implied volatility was ~55% on June 8, which implies WFT’s stock price could vary between $3.92 and $3.36 between now and June 15.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
On June 8, crude oil’s implied volatility was 23.7%. Since April 23, crude oil’s volatility has fallen, while HAL’s implied volatility has decreased during the same period.
Next, we’ll discuss crude oil’s correlation with HAL.