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Will GasLog Partners’ Earnings Rise in 1Q18?

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Analysts’ expectations

As we saw in the previous part of this series, Wall Street analysts expect a 34% year-over-year rise in GasLog Partners’ (GLOP) 1Q18 revenues. In this part, we’ll see what analysts expect for GasLog Partners’ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) for 1Q18 and 2018.

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EBITDA estimates

Since analysts estimate a rise in GasLog Partners’ revenue year-over-year, they also expect the EBITDA to rise. Analysts’ EBITDA estimates for 1Q18 are $56.2 million, a rise compared to $55.3 million in 4Q17 and $42.0 million in 1Q17. For 2Q18, analysts’ EBITDA estimates are $56.5 million. For fiscal 2018, analysts expect the company’s EBITDA to be $233 million, 19% higher than its EBITDA of $196 million in 2017.

Why does the EBITDA matter?

The EBITDA is an indicator of a company’s financial performance. It shows the company’s operating profit. LNG carrier companies are capital intensive and have high non-cash costs including depreciation. So it’s important to assess a company’s performance based on its EBITDA. Companies can also be valued based on their EV-to-EBITDA ratios.

EBITDA margins

GasLog Partners’ EBITDA margin was 76.8% at the end of 4Q17. Based on the estimated revenues and EBITDA, we calculated GasLog Partners’ estimated 1Q18 EBITDA at 73.6%. The 4Q17 EBITDA margins for GasLog Partners’ peers are:

  • Golar LNG Partners (GMLP): 74.4%
  • Dynagas LNG Partners (DLNG): 72.8%
  • Hoegh LNG Partners (HMLP): 76.9%
  • Teekay LNG Partners (TGP): 71.3%
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