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Why Analysts Expect AK Steel’s 1Q18 Revenues to Be Stagnant

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AK Steel’s 1Q18 revenues

AK Steel’s (AKS) 1Q18 earnings are expected on April 30. U.S. Steel (X) released its 1Q18 earnings yesterday after markets closed. In this article, we’ll see what analysts are projecting for AK Steel’s 1Q18 revenues.

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Analyst estimates

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect AK Steel to post revenues of $1.57 billion in 1Q18. The company posted revenues of $1.49 billion in 4Q17 and $1.53 billion in 1Q17. As you can see, analysts expect AK Steel’s 1Q18 revenues to be stagnant on a yearly basis while expecting them to rise 4.8% on a sequential basis. Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported a 9.3% and 11.9% sequential increase, respectively, in their 1Q18 revenues.

Flat shipments

Let’s see why analysts expect a much lower rise in AK Steel’s 1Q18 revenues as compared to some of the other steel companies. Steel companies’ revenue is a function of shipments and average selling prices (CLF).

Jaime Vasquez, AK Steel’s CFO, said during the company’s 4Q17 earnings call, “We estimate that our first quarter flat-rolled steel shipments will be marginally higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2017.” He also added, “We expect that our average flat-rolled steel selling price per ton in the first quarter will be up marginally compared to the fourth quarter of 2017 as higher customer contract selling prices from January 1 renewals are partially offset by relatively flat pricing in other product categories.”

AK Steel’s 1Q18 average selling price guidance during its 4Q17 earnings event miffed analysts. Having said that, AK Steel’s 1Q18 revenue estimates could still be somewhat conservative given the sharp rise in spot steel prices.

In the next article, we’ll see what analysts are projecting for AK Steel’s 1Q18 earnings.

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