How Phillips 66 Stock Could Trend pre-1Q18 Earnings Release



Phillips 66’s pre-earnings series

In this part, we’ll forecast Phillips 66’s stock price based on its implied volatility for the 16 days leading up to its earnings release. Phillips 66 is expected to post its 1Q18 earnings on April 27, 2018. Phillips 66’s implied volatility has risen 7.0% since January 2, 2018, to 23.5%, and its stock has risen 0.8%.

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Likely price range for Phillips 66 stock

Considering PSX’s implied volatility of 23.5% and assuming a normal distribution of prices, a standard deviation of one, and a probability of 68.2%, Phillips 66 stock could close between $107.60 and $97.50 in the 16 calendar days ending on April 27, 2018, which is set to be PSX’s 1Q18 earnings release day.

Peers’ implied volatility

Since January 2, Delek US Holdings’ (DK) and HollyFrontier’s (HFC) implied volatility has risen 6.8% and 7.1%, respectively, to 38.8% and 34.5%, and PBF Energy’s (PBF) has risen 5.9% to 35.7%. DK’s and HFC’s stock prices have risen 24.3% and 6.4%, respectively, whereas PBF stock has fallen 3.3%.

In line with PSX, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF’s (DIA) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s (SPY) implied volatility has risen 10.4% and 9.3%, respectively, since January 2, to 18.7% and 16.9%. DIA’s and SPY’s prices have fallen 2.5% and 1.9%. Continue to the next part to see Phillips 66’s analyst ratings, pre-1Q18 earnings release.


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