Fitbit: Trading at a Discount or a Premium to Analyst Estimates?

Fitbit (FIT) has returned -11% in the last 12 months, -3.2% in the last month, and -4.3% in the last five days. Fitbit stock fell 75% in 2016 and 22% in 2017. Since the start of 2018, it’s fallen 10%. Peers GoPro (GPRO), Fossil (FOSL), and Garmin (GRMN) have returned -45%, -17%, and 16%, respectively, in the last 12 months. 

Of the 13 analysts tracking Fitbit, three have recommended a “buy,” seven have recommended a “hold,” and three have recommended a “sell.” Analysts’ 12-month average price target is $5.50, and their median estimate is $6.13. It’s trading at a discount of 20% to analysts’ median estimate.

On April 23, Fitbit closed the trading day at $5.11. Based on that price, the stock is trading as follows:

• 8.2% below its 100-day moving average of $5.57
• 0.6% below its 50-day moving average of $0.61
• 1.9% above its 20-day moving average of $5.57

Fitbit is trading 14% above its 52-week low of $4.51 and 30% below its 52-week high of $7.32.

Fitbit’s 14-day MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is -0.01. A stock’s MACD marks the difference between its short-term and long-term moving averages. Fitbit’s negative MACD score indicates a downward trading trend.

Fitbit has a 14-day RSI (relative strength index) score of 70, which shows that the stock is trading in overbought territory. An RSI score above 70 indicates a stock has been overbought, while an RSI score below 30 suggests a stock has been oversold.