Earnings Expectations for Alibaba in Fiscal 4Q18



Earnings per share

Alibaba (BABA) is scheduled to release its fiscal 4Q18 (calendar 1Q18) results on May 4, before US trading begins. The company plans to host a conference that day to discuss the results. Wall Street expects Alibaba to report EPS (earnings per share) of $0.89 on revenue of $9.3 billion in fiscal 4Q18. In fiscal 4Q17, Alibaba posted EPS of $0.63 on revenue of $5.60, missing earnings estimates but beating revenue estimates.

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Commerce and cloud drove revenue growth in fiscal 3Q18

In the previous quarter (fiscal 3Q18), Alibaba posted EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $12.8 billion, beating the revenue expectation of $12.6 billion for the quarter. Revenue grew 56% YoY (year-over-year), driven by gains in core commerce and cloud computing, where sales grew 57% YoY and 104% YoY, respectively. Nearly 90% of Alibaba’s revenue came from commerce-related activities.

In the period corresponding to Alibaba’s fiscal 3Q18, revenue grew 38% YoY at Amazon (AMZN), 9.0% YoY at eBay (EBAY), 56% YoY at Tencent (TCEHY), and 38.7% YoY at JD.com (JD). PayPal (PYPL) reported 26% YoY revenue growth in 4Q17, which corresponds to Alibaba’s 3Q18.

Revenue growth expected to be 55%–56%

Alibaba didn’t provide performance guidance for fiscal 3Q18, though it did provide guidance for fiscal 2018. In February, the company raised its guidance for 2018 revenue growth to 55%–56% from 49%–53%. Alibaba generated $23 billion revenue in fiscal 2017, representing 56% growth.


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