The existing trend in revenues
In the fourth quarter of 2017, Harley-Davidson’s (HOG) revenues were $1.04 billion, which was 12.2% higher than $933 million in 4Q16. Its revenues were slightly better than analysts’ estimate of $1.01 billion. Despite weak international and US market retail sales, an 11.3% YoY (year-over-year) positive growth in motorcycle shipments had a positive impact on HOG’s revenues in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Now let’s see what Wall Street analysts are estimating for the company’s 1Q18 revenues.
Expectations from 1Q18 revenues
Analysts were estimating Harley-Davidson’s revenues to be $1.2 billion in 1Q18. That’s about 7.1% lower than $1.3 billion in the same quarter of 2017.
In contrast, analysts estimate that the company’s 2018 revenues should fall to $4.9 billion. That annual revenue estimate is a decrease of 1.1% from 2017.
Weak home market sales
For Harley-Davidson, the United States has always been the largest single market. It remains highly dependent on US sales. In 2017, HOG’s retail sales fell 8.5% YoY in the US market. No major signs of recovery in its home market sales are expected in recent quarters, which could be a reason for concern.
Despite improved economic conditions in the country in the last couple of years, Harley-Davidson has been struggling to boost its US sales.
Next, let’s see what analysts are estimating for Harley-Davidson’s margins in 1Q18.