ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
As of March 9, 2018, ConocoPhillips (COP) had implied volatility of ~22.8%, higher than its implied volatility of ~21.0% on December 29, 2017. In the last five trading sessions, COP’s implied volatility has decreased from ~26.9% to ~22.8%, due to its price rising ~2%.
COP’s price range forecast
Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~22.8% and assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one, its stock could close between $56.80 and $53.32 in the next seven calendar days. COP stock would be expected to stay in this range 68% of the time. On March 9, COP stock closed at $55.06.
Peers’ price forecasts
As of March 9, 2018, ConocoPhillips peer Marathon Oil (MRO) had implied volatility of ~35.6%, meaning MRO stock is expected to close between $15.97 and $14.47 in the next seven calendar days. On March 9, MRO’s stock price closed at $15.22.
As of March 9, 2018, the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) had implied volatility of ~34.8%, meaning XOP is expected to close between $36.06 and $33.48 in the next seven calendar days. On March 9, XOP’s price closed at $34.77. Based on these calculations, there is a 68% probability that these stocks will close in the price ranges in the given period.