ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility
As of March 16, ConocoPhillips (COP) recorded implied volatility of ~21.8%, which is higher than its implied volatility of ~21.0% on December 29, 2017. In the last five trading sessions, COP’s implied volatility decreased from ~22.8% to ~21.8%, due to the marginal decline of ~0.2% in the week.
COP’s price range forecast
Based on ConocoPhillips’s implied volatility of ~21.8%—assuming a normal distribution of prices, 365 days in a year, and a standard deviation of one—its stock could close between $56.58 and $53.28 in the next seven calendar days. COP’s stock should stay in this range 68% of the time. On March 16, COP’s stock price closed at $54.91.
Peer price range forecasts
As of March 16, COP’s peer Marathon Oil (MRO) has an implied volatility of ~32.4%, which means MRO stock is expected to close between $15.80 and $14.44 in the next seven calendar days. On March 16, MRO’s stock price closed at $15.12.
As of March 16, the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) has an implied volatility of ~24.5%, which means XOP is expected to close between $35.59 and $33.25 in the next seven calendar days. On March 16, XOP’s price closed at $34.42.
Based on the inputs used to calculate price ranges, there’s a 68% chance these stocks will close in their range for the given period.