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BP Seems Set to Grow with Strong Upstream Project Pipeline

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Mar. 22 2018, Published 8:04 a.m. ET

BP’s mega upstream projects

BP (BP) will likely witness higher production in 2018 with the launch of seven mega projects in 2017. BP expects a few of the critical upstream projects to start production in 2018—Giza and Fayoum in Egypt, Shah Deniz Stage 2 in Azerbaijan, Clair Ridge in the North Sea, and Constellation in the US Gulf of Mexico.

Of the projects expected to start in 2018, the biggest field is Shah Deniz Stage 2. The field is expected to have 325 Mboepd (thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day) of gross peak production. Giza, Fayoum, and Raven or GFR are expected to have peak production of 185 Mboepd. BP’s stake in the GFR field in Egypt is higher compared to the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan. BP is expected to see a significant portion of the new production coming in from the GFR startup in Egypt.

Clair Ridge with 110 Mboepd of gross peak production is also expected to start production in 2018. Constellation is the smallest field, among the four fields expected to start in 2018, with 15 Mboepd of gross peak production. Atoll Phase 1, completed in December 2017, has started to produce gas.

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BP expects ~900 Mboepd of new production, net to BP, by 2021 from it major upstream projects. The eight key projects, which have already started operating in 2017–2018, will likely contribute a significant portion of the stated new production. The projects that are expected to start in the rest of 2018 will likely add to BP’s hydrocarbon production.

BP’s proved reserves

BP has vast proved reserves of 18.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent. BP’s upstream segment, with an enormous reserve base, will likely continue to contribute significantly to its overall earnings even after 2021. Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Chevron (CVX), and ExxonMobil (XOM) have proved reserves of ~12.2, 11.7, and 21.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, respectively.

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