Schlumberger’s implied volatility
On February 16, 2018, Schlumberger’s (SLB) implied volatility was 25.3%. On January 19, 2018, Schlumberger released its 4Q17 financial results. Since then, Schlumberger’s implied volatility has risen from 21% to the current level. Since January 19, SLB’s stock price decreased nearly 13%. SLB makes up 3.6% of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES). XES decreased ~17% since January 19, 2018.
Schlumberger’s seven-day stock price forecast
Schlumberger’s stock will likely close between $68.60 and $63.96 in the next seven days based on its implied volatility. Schlumberger’s seven-day stock price forecast considers normal distribution of stock prices and one standard deviation probability of 68.2%. SLB’s stock price was $66.28 on February 16, 2018.
Implied volatility for SLB’s peers
National Oilwell Varco’s (NOV) implied volatility on February 16 was 30.0%, which implies NOV’s stock price can vary between $37.09 and $34.13 in the next seven days. Helmerich & Payne’s (HP) implied volatility was 30.5% on February 16, which implies HP’s stock price can range between $68.22 and $62.70 in the next seven days. Tidewater’s (TDW) implied volatility was 44.7% on February 16, which implies its stock price can vary between $26.80 and $23.68 in the next seven days. Read more about Schlumberger in Market Realist’s Schlumberger: What to Expect after Strong 4Q17 Earnings.
Crude oil’s implied volatility
On February 16, crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.6%. Since January 19, 2018, crude oil’s volatility has increased, as has SLB’s implied volatility during the same period.
Next, we’ll discuss SLB’s correlation coefficient with crude oil.