Antero Resources’ Production Expectations for 2017 and 2018

For 4Q17, Antero Resources (AR) is expected to report total production of 2,347 MMcfe/d (million cubic feet equivalent per day), which represents an 18% increase year-over-year.

Antero is forecasting a compound annual production growth rate of 20% over the four-year period from 2017 to 2020. This plan assumes flat $3.00/MMBtu (million British thermal units) natural gas and $54-per-barrel WTI crude oil prices, in line with 2018 strip pricing.

Antero expects production of 2,700 MMcfe/d in 2018, representing year-over-year growth of 20% compared to 2017, including 23% liquids growth, with natural gas making up 52% of the total production and liquids (natural gas liquids plus crude oil) making up the remaining 28%.

In 2018, AR expects to operate an average of five drilling rigs and four completion crews in the Marcellus Shale. It plans to complete 120 to 125 wells with an average lateral length of 9,300 feet. As Antero expects its average lateral lengths to continue to increase, it expects its total well costs to decline in 2018 to $0.80 million per 1,000 feet of lateral, a 45% decline compared to 2014 and a 9% reduction compared to 2017 well costs.

AR plans to operate one drilling rig and one completion crew in the Utica Shale, where it plans to complete 20 to 25 wells in 2018. The company is currently drilling and completing its Utica wells at an average cost of $0.89 million per 1,000 feet of lateral, which represents a 43% well cost improvement over 2014 and a 9% improvement compared to 2017 well costs.

In the next part of this series, we’ll look at AR’s capex plans for 2018.